CO129-502-6 China- general situation 7-1-1927 - 3-3-1927 — Page 52

Apy. Original on

C.30009/27.C

China Siluakon Seul.

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CYPHER TELEGRAM from the Secretary of State for the

Colonies to the Governor of Hongkong •

(Sent 12.55 p.m. 26th February, 1927.)

Your telegram 22nd February coercive measures

telegraph your further views in light of Foreign Office

telegram to Peking No. 149 of 21st February. It seems clearly premature to consider ultimatum to Nationalist

Government in respect of occurrences at Shanghai which is

not yet under their control. But supposing that if and

when Nationalists reach Shanghai same policy is followed

as at Hankow notwithstanding the assurances given and it

becomes clear that no settlement by negotiation can be

expected then the time may arrive when we may be driven

to consider the institution.of counter-measures. The

difficulty is to suggest any counter-measures which

would necessarily be decisive.

A pacific blockade even

if undertaken with the co-operation or consent of Japan

and America would not only carry no guarantee of success

but would almost certainly be ineffectual in view of ease

with which other channels could be found for trade and of

impossibility of interfering with shipping of other Powers especially Russia. On the other hand to block the

Canton and Yangt se Rivers and to declare a state of war

against the Nationalist Government might have the effect of uniting China against us and in view of the fact that China is essentially self supporting would do us more

harm than the Chinese who se internal trade would continue.

In either case the complete evacuation of the blockadel area

and the abandonment of British interests inland would

presumably